While some reduce Tuesday's presidential election to a horse race, and others rely on superstition, I prefer to believe in good old fashioned voter turnout. While the Republicans have been able to rely on church groups to rally conservative Christian voters, Democrats have been able to register thousands of new voters with help from groups like MoveOn.org and legions of volunteers.
My predicton: whoever wins will do so by a much wider margin than most people think. Newly registered voters simply aren't showing up in these deadlocked polls. If you believe Salon's Eric Rorer, more and more people are starting to "wake up" and support Kerry. If Kerry does win, he'll have a hell of a mess on his hands in Iraq, as a major offensive on Fallujah seems imminent. Iraq will then become Kerry's war, in the same way that Somalia and Mogadishu became Bill Clinton's problem. At that point will Iraqi troops be able to defend their own country? If not, will Kerry be able to bring our troops home? Will the Republicans let him do so with dignity?
If Kerry wins, I have a sneaking suspicion the Far Right Christians who believe in the End of Days (the Rapture Index ticked up a notch to 156 on Tuesday) will feel their prophecy has been denied to them. And they'll do everything in their power to bring another Republican back to the White House. Whover wins will certainly have their work cut out for them over the next four years...